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As Ukraine teeters toward political and military disaster, it is time to ask why the CIA failed to predict it. “Wait a minute,” you might say, “how do you know the CIA didn’t know?” Fair question. I no longer have access to classified information, but I can read public statements from DOD and State Department officials, as well as comments from various members of Congress. During the past two years – since the beginning of the special military operation – never have we heard a single discouraging word from anyone who had access to the CIA briefings on Ukraine's military prospects, which would suggest that the West Russia Is engaged in a foolish attempt to destroy.
On the eve of the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the CIA should have answered the following questions:
- What is the capability and status of the Russian Armed Forces?
- What is Russia's ability to withstand Western economic sanctions?
- What conditions must exist that would force President Putin from office?
Here's what we know for sure. Despite Vladimir Putin's repeated calls for assurances from President Joe Biden and other Western leaders that Ukraine will not be readmitted into NATO, the West told Putin to screw off and Ukraine's military buildup continues. kept. The US and its NATO allies believed that Russia's military was weak and ineffective. Western leaders also believed that Russia's economy was vulnerable to Western economic sanctions and that an economic collapse in Russia would oust Putin from power.
The Western plan was simple, audacious, and deceptive – that is, to use Ukraine as a military proxy, defeat Russia, and humiliate Vladimir Putin; impose Western economic sanctions that would devastate the Russian economy and further reduce support for Putin; Divide the Republic of Russia into 41 new countries. It sounds crazy, but take a look at what Angel Vohra wrote in Foreign Policy Magazine in April 2023:
The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, an independent US government agency consisting of members of the US House of Representatives, Senate, and the Departments of Defense, State, and Commerce, has declared that decolonizing Russia to be a “moral and strategic objective”. Needed The Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum, which includes politicians and journalists exiled from Russia, held a meeting at the European Parliament in Brussels earlier this year and is advertising three events in different US cities this month. It also released a map of Russia divided into 41 separate countries in a post-Putin world, assuming he has lost Ukraine and is out.
Western analysts are increasingly pushing the theory that Russian disintegration is coming and that the West must be prepared not only to manage the potential spillover of any upcoming civil war, but also to manage this by bringing resource-rich successor nations within its fold. One should also benefit from fractures. He argues that when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the West turned a blind eye and failed to fully take advantage of this significant opportunity. Now instead of giving leeway to Putin, it should make a strategy to end the Russian threat forever.
Merely put, the US and its NATO allies had been obsessive about destroying Russia as a nation and noticed the struggle in Ukraine as a possibility to hold out this plan. At no time earlier than or after the beginning of the struggle in Ukraine in February 2022, the US intelligence neighborhood supplied any evaluation contradicting this narrative.
So let's check out what was being mentioned publicly concerning the three questions I posed above. I’ll begin with the place of the Russian military. Right here's what GIS – a European-based “assume” tank – was doing in Could of 2022. Of observe, this evaluation was echoed all through the US nationwide safety institution:
A month into the struggle, the tables had been turned. The Ukrainian aspect had inflicted large losses on the attacker and had taken the initiative in a profitable counteroffensive. After being badly defeated, the Russian military withdrew from Northern Ukraine. The implication is that, whereas Ukraine's capacity to withstand was underestimated, the potential of the Russian struggle machine was much more significantly underestimated.
And now, primarily based on early developments on the bottom, it appears more and more doubtless that the Russian offensive in Donbass will meet the identical destiny because the failed ambition to seize Kiev. If that occurs, Ukraine will win the struggle, even when at a horrible price. On condition that the Russian aspect wouldn’t be allowed to capitulate till it had little to combat for, one may predict that Russia would come out of the struggle with a badly broken army drive. The long-term influence of such a state of affairs can be profound.
Then we’ve got retired US Military Basic Ben Hodges supply his inaccurate evaluation in August 2023:
Hodges added, “To me, it's both conceitedness, or inexperience, or they haven't realized something.” “And I believe what we're seeing is even with a multi-million greenback, state-of-the-art assault helicopter, you probably have a pilot who will not be skilled, they will be shot down.” , ,
The retired basic mentioned throughout his interview that even “after 18 months” of the struggle, Russia is exhibiting that regardless of having efficient and well-equipped plane, they’re nonetheless “actually weak”.
“There's a variety of speak about Ukraine can't do that, Ukraine can't do that,” Hodges mentioned. “Then again… they (Russia) have misplaced a variety of pilots, they’ve misplaced a variety of tanks, they’ve misplaced a variety of artillery, they’re always dropping generals. Their logistics system is delicate. So, I believe now could be the time to actually put strain on Russia, to not pause or hesitate.”
To compile all of the West's false, inaccurate predictions about Russia's army functionality I must write a 500-page ebook. This represents a serious intelligence failure.
We see an identical debacle relating to Western predictions concerning the anticipated influence of sanctions on the Russian economic system. For instance, the Wall Avenue Journal offered its evaluation in an article on January 26, 2022, titled Russia's efforts to wash up its economic system have uncovered a weak level.
Consultants say the retaliation package deal taken by the US and Europe will trigger enormous harm regardless of Russia's efforts to avoid wasting its economic system. , , ,
Now, harder measures within the face of a renewed crackdown in Ukraine may check that strategy, and consultants say they might trigger widespread financial ache, regardless of Mr. Putin's efforts to melt the blow. Are.
America mentioned on Tuesday it’s ready to impose sanctions and export controls on key sectors of the Russian economic system. Senior administration officers mentioned the US may ban exports to Russia of varied merchandise that use microelectronics primarily based on American gear, software program or expertise, much like the US strain marketing campaign on Chinese language telecommunications large Huawei Applied sciences Co. US officers have beforehand mentioned measures into account additionally embrace slicing Russian banks' entry to {dollars} and doable sanctions on Russian vitality exports. , , ,
Brian O'Toole, a former Treasury official and sanctions professional on the Atlantic Council assume tank, mentioned the most recent spherical of sanctions, if adopted, would trigger “large financial dislocation, with large financial penalties…instant financial There can be an influence.
The financial ache may additional cut back Mr. Putin's approval score, which fell from practically 90% in 2015 to 65% in December, in keeping with the unbiased Russian pollster Levada Middle.
One of many hardest choices – and Western negotiators say it’s not presently on the desk – the Biden administration has up to now thought of isolating Moscow from the SWIFT worldwide banking system, which is utilized by greater than 200 international locations. Utilized by over 11,000 monetary establishments. , and stopping Russian monetary establishments from utilizing US {dollars}.
What a giant mess. And the Biden administration doubled down on this silly motion by slicing off Russia’s entry to SWIFT. The true influence of the sanctions prompted Russia to maneuver rapidly to type new financial alliances with China and different main economies within the World South, and the sanctions accelerated the event of an alternate funds system that was unbiased of the US greenback. Both the Biden administration ignored warnings from CIA analysts that Russia's huge reserves of pure assets, oil, gasoline, coal, aluminum, nickel, nitrogen, and uncommon earth minerals saved it insulated from Western sanctioning, or the CIA ignored the energy of the Russian economic system. Failed to research precisely. ,
As a substitute of weakening public assist in Russia for Vladimir Putin, his political place turned stronger. Moderately than isolating Putin, NATO's proxy struggle helped Putin strengthen and develop relations with China, India, Iran, North Korea, South Africa, and Brazil.
The West is caught in its personal lure. Russia has reactivated the moribund protection business and is creating ammunition, shells, missiles, rockets, artillery, tanks, drones and fight automobiles at a tempo that the West can not match. As a substitute of demonstrating Western superiority, the NATO alliance has been uncovered as a renegade, impotent determine. A Ukraine defeat would drive the US and NATO to select — escalate struggle with Russia and threat a nuclear explosion or discover a diplomatic off-ramp. Whereas the present rhetoric amongst many NATO members is aggressive, France's Macron is making an attempt to garner assist for becoming a member of the combat in opposition to Russia, growing divisions in Europe. Germany is definitely not passionate about signing on to France's suicide mission.
The important thing to ending the struggle was Washington D.C. is contained in. It's an election yr and voters don’t have any want for a direct army confrontation with Russia. Then there's the truth that the Biden administration is focusing extra on the struggle between Israel and the Palestinians, the Houthi closure of the Crimson Sea, and the concern that China will transfer in opposition to Taiwan. The US has no good, clear, clear exit plan for ending assist for the proxy struggle with Russia. The very best the Biden staff can hope for is that Ukraine ousts Zelensky and a brand new Ukrainian authorities decides to make peace with Moscow. At that time, Biden can shrug his shoulders and say, “We tried” after which stroll away. That is the outcome I hope for.