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Recent victories on the battlefield have supporters of Sudan's military believing it can turn the tide against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, yet experts remain undecided.
On 12 March, the army captured the national radio and television building in Omdurman, Sudan's second-largest city and one-third of the national capital region.
The victory came just weeks after the army broke an RSF siege to recapture other areas of Omdurman.
“I wouldn't be overly optimistic, because occupying territory is one thing and occupying territory is quite another,” said Hagar Ali, an expert on military-civilian relations in Sudan and a PhD candidate at the German Institute. Global and regional studies.
Despite caution, the army's recent victories appear to cast doubt on the RSF's ability to conquer the entire country, which was made possible after capturing Gezira state in December.
Losing the vital breadbasket state and relief center was a major blow to the army. This raised serious questions over its ability to protect civilians from the RSF, a group accused of atrocities such as summary killings, sexual violence and armed robberies.
But the military's takeover of radio and television stations is restoring some confidence in its abilities.
Narrative management
Taking up nationwide radio and tv holds particular significance as that is the constructing from which navy leaders have traditionally introduced their coups to the nation.
Specialists and Sudanese commentators instructed Al Jazeera that it might now function a useful gizmo to assist the navy's struggle efforts.
A Sudanese journalist in Nile River state, who requested to not be recognized for worry of navy reprisals, believes members of Sudan's Islamic Motion – which dominated for 30 years below former President Omar al-Bashir – Will attempt to management radio and tv. Unfold your struggle story.
“At the start of the struggle, the military lacked a complete media marketing campaign, not less than in comparison with the RSF which used the media sector to assist its struggle. Now all the main target is on how the military will use the radio and tv constructing,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
“I believe the (al-Bashir-era) authorities will certainly participate in controlling the content material,” the journalist stated.
Because the outbreak of struggle between the military and the RSF in April 2023, Bashir-era figures have re-emerged to assist the military's struggle efforts. Members of the Islamic Motion of Sudan management the Finance Ministry and are additionally believed to have affect over the Overseas Ministry.
Many have reportedly assisted in recruitment campaigns and arranged militias to struggle alongside the military.
The autumn of Gezira additionally helped recruitment efforts as 1000’s of youth – and a few kids – took up arms in self-defense or joined military recruitment camps to be deployed in opposition to the RSF.
struggle for benefit
In response to Ali, the military remains to be affected by a big deficit regardless of its current victories.
In cities like Khartoum, he stated, the RSF is extra cellular and capable of conceal in streets, homes and buildings to keep away from military airstrikes.
In huge open areas like Darfur – which is generally managed by the RSF – navy plane have a transparent view of targets, Ali stated, however they’re additionally clear targets for anti-aircraft weapons.
Jonas Horner, a Sudan knowledgeable who has labored with numerous assume tanks such because the Worldwide Disaster Group, was extra optimistic in regards to the military's prospects.
“My feeling is that there’s momentum right here — and my different feeling is that it's largely as a result of enhance in troops and expertise that’s coming from Iran as a result of the navy can't get it from anyplace else,” he stated. . Instructed Al Jazeera.
The weapons Horner was referring to additionally embody Iranian drones. He additionally speculated that the al-Bashir-era individuals organized fighters from related ideological backgrounds to struggle the RSF alongside the military.
“Most of the fighters combating the RSF are extremely motivated Islamic forces who need to retake Sudan. “Ideological motivation issues so much for people who find themselves there for the pay, as many RSF fighters are,” Horner instructed Al Jazeera.
counter assault
In response to Hamid Khalafallah, a Sudanese analyst and PhD candidate on the College of Manchester, the Sudanese military's current victory may be the top of the military's battlefield success.
He isn’t optimistic that the military can obtain vital good points in opposition to the RSF.
“I'm unsure he has the capability to do way more. The radio and tv constructing is simply too large for them, nevertheless it's not a metropolis,'' he instructed Al Jazeera, referring to hypothesis that the military was planning to launch a counter-attack on Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira.
Khalafallah stated the RSF is unfold all through Gezira, the place web blackouts – which civilians blame the RSF – make it troublesome to doc human rights abuses by paramilitaries.
The RSF reportedly killed lots of of civilians in Gezira whereas looting properties and stealing autos. In response to native activists, in addition they attacked farmers and gang-raped ladies.
RSF chief, Mohammed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, claims that “rogue” components within the RSF are committing abuses in Gezira, however the stories are exaggerated.
One other Sudanese journalist requested Al Jazeera to not disclose his title for worry of reprisals from the navy, saying most individuals have been searching for any signal that the military might shield them.
He acknowledged that regardless of the navy's reliance on Islamist figures and fighters of the al-Bashir regime, individuals would really feel safer dwelling below navy rule.
“Individuals round me desire the military to the RSF.
“However ultimately, they only hope that (Sudan) can someday return to peace and safety.”