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David Glantz and Jonathan House served mankind as they delved into Soviet military archives and produced a must-read about World War II – When Titans Clashed: How the Red Army Stopped Hitler. This book is not just about the seismic events of 80 years ago, when the Soviets ignored devastating early losses and proceeded to decimate the German Wehrmacht during the war on the Eastern Front. The book is still relevant as it provides an understanding of the ongoing military planning in Ukraine and Russia's approach to combined arms.
I was particularly impressed by the authors' description of Operation Citadel aka the Battle of Kursk because of the parallels with Ukraine's failed 2023 counter-offensive. For starters, both the Soviets of 1943 and the Russians of 2023 knew there was an imminent “offensive” or “counter-offensive.” Neither the Germans of 1943 nor the Ukrainians of 2023 made any attempt to obscure their intention to launch a major offensive.
Then there is the matter of defensive blockade. The Soviets built trenches and battle positions hundreds of miles deep along the expected axis of attack. The Russians created what is commonly known as the Surovikin Lines – a series of defensive structures 30 kilometers deep and spanning a hundred-mile front. These Soviet and Russian blockades proved effective in defeating the respective Nazi and Ukrainian invasions.
The biggest lesson of the Glantz/Hausman book is the difference between the Soviet “war level” and the current Russian “special military operations”. While modern Russia is applying some of the planning and operational principles adopted by the Soviet Stavka during World War II, Russia has not fully organized nor used the firepower associated with Soviet attacks in World War II . This is a simple way of saying that Russia has not yet fully demonstrated its military power.
I advise you to read the latest book by Simplicius the Thinker, which provides an excellent summary of the panic that prevailed among Ukrainian and Western officials after Ukraine's defeat at Avdiivka. One of the biggest reasons that the West constantly misunderstands and misinterprets what is happening militarily with Russian operations in Ukraine is that the West projects onto Russia what it thinks it is. That's what the Russians should do. For example, when Russia deployed mile-long tank divisions north of Kiev in March 2022, the West concluded that it was a failed Russian military operation because there was no armored attack on Kiev. Western analysts concluded that Russia had inadequate logistics and could not sustain operations.
Now we know this is wrong. Russia deployed that force north of Kiev as a bargaining chip as part of a broader diplomatic/military solution. When it appeared a negotiated settlement was on the way, Russia withdrew the force as a gesture of goodwill. But the United States and Britain sabotaged those talks and proceeded to craft a narrative that Russia had suffered a humiliating military defeat at the hands of the Ukrainians. This was a lie but it had the desired effect of boosting the public narrative in the West.
The West continues to look for a “big arrow” offensive – that is, a massive concentration of Russian forces in one or two sectors and a subsequent armored column attack that attempts to break Ukrainian defensive lines. I don't think that's in the plan at all. Russia is adopting a dispersed offensive that applies concentrated forces to various locations along a 1200 kilometer front. Without giving a clear indication of their next axis of attack, the Russians are able to confuse Ukraine's remaining forces and force them to move forces back and forth across the front. Just as a tsunami slowly builds up and then suddenly overwhelms everything in front of it, I think we are witnessing the Russians' equivalent of a military tsunami.
I’ve lengthy been on document that there was no standoff in Ukraine; Russia has a transparent and decisive benefit. It's good to know that former CIA chief and Protection Secretary Bobby Gates agrees with me:
Former CIA director and Protection Secretary Robert Gates stated Wednesday that Russian forces have damaged the stalemate within the Ukraine battle, following Moscow's profitable try and seize the front-line city of Avdiivka.
“That is not a standoff. “The Russians have regained momentum,” Gates informed The Washington Publish's David Ignatius in a streaming interview. “Every part I'm studying is that the Russians are on the offensive on a 600-mile entrance.”
He stated that Russia has suffered heavy losses within the battle, however now that Ukraine faces a scarcity of artillery due to American assist, “the Russians really feel that the scenario has modified, and whereas a lot stays to be executed Sure, they’ve the initiative,” Gates stated.
Nonetheless, Gates can't keep away from spreading silly nonsense. “Russia suffered large losses?” Full nonsense devoid of info. It’s this type of self-deception that stops most Western analysts from understanding the grave predicament dealing with Ukraine and NATO. I believe that the Russians are privately encouraging the West to bask in such fantasies. This makes it simpler to perform the Russian strategic process.